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2026 cycle · seat up this cycle
At-risk incumbents
Per-rep composite score combining four signals: challenger fundraising ratio (40%), statement-vs-vote consistency (25%), news pressure (20%), and late STOCK Act filings (15%). Higher score = more vulnerable. Recomputed daily from the underlying tables — see each row for the ground-truth signals behind the score.
Caveat: this is a vulnerability indicator, not a prediction. Incumbents win 90%+ of contested races even when outraised. This board is about attention, not outcome.
| # | Rep | Seat | Money | Consist. | Ethics | News | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Cassidy(R) | LA — U.S. Senate Louisiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 8 |
| 2 | James Comer(R) | KY-1 Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 8 |
| 3 | Thomas Massie(R) | KY-4 Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 8 |
| 4 | Pete Ricketts(R) | NE — U.S. Senate Nebraska | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 5 | Steve Womack(R) | AR-3 Arkansas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 6 | Terri A. Sewell(D) | AL-7 Alabama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 7 | Steve Cohen(D) | TN-9 Tennessee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 8 | James E. Clyburn(D) | SC-6 South Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 9 | Marcy Kaptur(D) | OH-9 Ohio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 10 | Brendan F. Boyle(D) | PA-2 Pennsylvania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 11 | Cory A. Booker(D) | NJ — U.S. Senate New Jersey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 12 | Lindsey Graham(R) | SC — U.S. Senate South Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 13 | John Cornyn(R) | TX — U.S. Senate Texas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 14 | Susan M. Collins(R) | ME — U.S. Senate Maine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 15 | Riley M. Moore(R) | WV-2 West Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 16 | Greg Casar(D) | TX-35 Texas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 17 | Anna Paulina Luna(R) | FL-13 Florida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 18 | Rashida Tlaib(D) | MI-12 Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 19 | Ted Lieu(D) | CA-36 California | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 20 | Frank J. Mrvan(D) | IN-1 Indiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 21 | Madeleine Dean(D) | PA-4 Pennsylvania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 22 | Josh Gottheimer(D) | NJ-5 New Jersey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 23 | Mike Johnson(R) | LA-4 Louisiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 24 | Ro Khanna(D) | CA-17 California | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 25 | Hakeem S. Jeffries(D) | NY-8 New York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 26 | Jared Huffman(D) | CA-2 California | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 27 | Steve Scalise(R) | LA-1 Louisiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 28 | John B. Larson(D) | CT-1 Connecticut | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 29 | Mike D. Rogers(R) | AL-3 Alabama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 30 | Eugene Simon Vindman(D) | VA-7 Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 |
| 31 | Dan Sullivan(R) | AK — U.S. Senate Alaska | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | Mike Rounds(R) | SD — U.S. Senate South Dakota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | James E. Risch(R) | ID — U.S. Senate Idaho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 | Jack Reed(D) | RI — U.S. Senate Rhode Island | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Jon Ossoff(D) | GA — U.S. Senate Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Mike Ezell(R) | MS-4 Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 37 | Chuck Edwards(R) | NC-11 North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | Donald G. Davis(D) | NC-1 North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 39 | Eric Burlison(R) | MO-7 Missouri | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 40 | Nikki Budzinski(D) | IL-13 Illinois | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 41 | Mark R. Warner(D) | VA — U.S. Senate Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 42 | Jeff Merkley(D) | OR — U.S. Senate Oregon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 43 | Roger Marshall(R) | KS — U.S. Senate Kansas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | Edward J. Markey(D) | MA — U.S. Senate Massachusetts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 45 | Ben Ray Luján(D) | NM — U.S. Senate New Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 46 | Andy Harris(R) | MD-1 Maryland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 47 | William R. Keating(D) | MA-9 Massachusetts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | Austin Scott(R) | GA-8 Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 49 | Frederica S. Wilson(D) | FL-24 Florida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 50 | Clay Fuller(R) | GA-14 Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 51 | Joaquin Castro(D) | TX-20 Texas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 52 | Maxwell Frost(D) | FL-10 Florida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 53 | Jason Crow(D) | CO-6 Colorado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | Cindy Hyde-Smith(R) | MS — U.S. Senate Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | John W. Hickenlooper(D) | CO — U.S. Senate Colorado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 56 | Bill Hagerty(R) | TN — U.S. Senate Tennessee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 57 | Tom Cotton(R) | AR — U.S. Senate Arkansas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 58 | Christopher A. Coons(D) | DE — U.S. Senate Delaware | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 59 | Robert F. Onder(R) | MO-3 Missouri | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | Shelley Moore Capito(R) | WV — U.S. Senate West Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 61 | Ben Cline(R) | VA-6 Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | Jim Costa(D) | CA-21 California | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 63 | Ann Wagner(R) | MO-2 Missouri | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 64 | Michael A. Rulli(R) | OH-6 Ohio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 65 | Johnny Olszewski(D) | MD-2 Maryland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 66 | Addison P. McDowell(R) | NC-6 North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 67 | John J. McGuire(R) | VA-5 Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 68 | Tim Moore(R) | NC-14 North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 69 | Mark B. Messmer(R) | IN-8 Indiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 70 | April McClain Delaney(D) | MD-6 Maryland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 71 | John W. Mannion(D) | NY-22 New York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 72 | Ryan Mackenzie(R) | PA-7 Pennsylvania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 73 | George Latimer(D) | NY-16 New York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 74 | Brad Knott(R) | NC-13 North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 75 | Mike Kennedy(R) | UT-3 Utah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 76 | Julie Johnson(D) | TX-32 Texas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 77 | Pablo Jose Hernández(D) | PR-? PR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 78 | Mark Harris(R) | NC-8 North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 79 | Pat Harrigan(R) | NC-10 North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 80 | Maggie Goodlander(D) | NH-2 New Hampshire | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 81 | Brandon Gill(R) | TX-26 Texas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 82 | Laura Gillen(D) | NY-4 New York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 83 | Craig A. Goldman(R) | TX-12 Texas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 84 | Laura Friedman(D) | CA-30 California | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 85 | Julie Fedorchak(R) | ND-? North Dakota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 86 | Sarah Elfreth(D) | MD-3 Maryland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 87 | Maxine Dexter(D) | OR-3 Oregon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 88 | Troy Downing(R) | MT-2 Montana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 89 | Herbert C. Conaway(D) | NJ-3 New Jersey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 90 | Robert P. Bresnahan(R) | PA-8 Pennsylvania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 91 | Janelle S. Bynum(D) | OR-5 Oregon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 92 | Sheri Biggs(R) | SC-3 South Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 93 | Michael Baumgartner(R) | WA-5 Washington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 94 | Tom Barrett(R) | MI-7 Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 95 | Richard McCormick(R) | GA-7 Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 96 | Marlin A. Stutzman(R) | IN-3 Indiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 97 | Cleo Fields(D) | LA-6 Louisiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 98 | Sarah McBride(D) | DE-? Delaware | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 99 | Kelly Morrison(D) | MN-3 Minnesota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 100 | Kimberlyn King-Hinds(R) | MP-? MP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sources: candidates.fundraising_total (FEC); consistency_pairs (LLM-scored statement-vs-vote alignment, surfaceable rows only); rep_stock_trades with disclosure_delay_days > 45 (STOCK Act 45-day window); news_mentions from a curated outlet list, last 30 days. Refreshed daily.